Gresham’s Law and Bitcoin - Austrian Economic Blogs
Gresham’s Law and Bitcoin - Austrian Economic Blogs
Gresham’s Law and Bitcoin - Swiss Economicblogs.org
Bitcoin & Gresham's Law - the economic inevitability of ...
Gresham’s Law And Bitcoin Phil's Stock World
Gresham's Law and Bitcoin snbchf.com
Pretty sure I'm black listed
I keep posting regularly, have over 1400 subscribers, but my sub count is FALLING, and despite the number of subscribers, my videos routinely only get between 5 to 20 views... Anyways, any help you guys can provide with likes and subs would be appreciated. Here's the newest vid I just posted. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z-sMZyzLRFY Ever need someone that you can just talk to about money and financial woes or decision making, but find that most people are too intimidated to do so? Ever find content you're watching to be stale and incomplete? Are you looking for someone who will just tell you how it is, at that moment, clear of any of the B.S.? Well you're in the right place then! I introduce to you the video series Money Bites! In this video I teach you in very simple terms what Gresham's Law is. It basically states that bad money drives out good. You can follow me on Twitter here: https://twitter.com/terr547 You can follow me on Instagram here: https://www.instagram.com/ppearson216/ You can follow me on Facebook here, like the page! https://www.facebook.com/pg/PePEntrep... You can follow me on Bigger Pockets, here: https://www.biggerpockets.com/users/P... I'm also on Minds.com: https://www.minds.com/terr547/ I'm on Bitchute.com here: https://www.bitchute.com/channel/v5MA... (this channel is still mostly dedicated to esoteric stuff, but if that fits your fancy, then so be it!!) I am an open book and love to communicate! Please feel free to talk to me on any of these social media sites, or if you want to get in touch with me even more directly, comment on the video and we can talk! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ❎I am not a CPA, attorney, insurance, or financial advisor and the information in these videos shall not be construed as tax, legal, insurance, construction, engineering, health and safety, electrical or financial advice. IF stocks or companies are mentioned, I MAY have an ownership interest in them -- DO NOT make buying or selling decisions based on my videos. If you need such advice, please contact a qualified CPA, attorney, insurance agent, contractoelectrician/engineeetc. or financial advisor. Linked items may create a financial benefit for me, Payton Pearson. Any use of other media is by fair-use only. Payton Pearson Financial welcomes you to continue learning with us, as the information provided in this video is for educational and entertainment purposes only, and not to be used for anything otherwise. If you seek to utilize any portion of this video, please contact me first, and we can discuss the terms. This is not an advertisement of property for sale and shall not be construed as anything other than an opinion. Thank you! ❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️ #RealEstate#Investing#PassiveIncome#FIRE#budget#bitcoin#cryptocurrency#finance
The monetary system for a successful and sustainable future
Kinetically Charged Yield Bearing Asset Based Monetary System of Shared Economic Wealth In the same way our sun unconditionally delivers an indiscriminate share of energy to planet Earth that stimulates life, we present a comparative energy system to stimulate the movement of money, assets and hence overall commerce and economic activity in a fair, honest and rewarding process. It is an entirely new monetary system, which is based on movement, kinetics and velocity. We name the system Kinesis. The Kinesis system is an evolutionary step beyond any monetary system available in the world today. It enhances money as both a store of value and a medium of exchange, and has been developed for the benefit of all. Core to the mechanics of the system is the perpetual incentive and thus stimulus for money velocity. Outside capital is attracted into Kinesis via a highly attractive risk/return ratio and then put into highly stimulated movement, promoting commerce and economic activity. This is achieved through structuring money to represent 100% allocated title of an asset and then attaching a unique multifaceted yield system that fairly shares the wealth generated by the system according to participation and money velocity. Aside from offering the greatest store of value and striving to provide the most efficient medium of exchange, Kinesis is a monetary system focused on: minimising risk; maximising return; stimulating velocity and maximising the rate of adoption. Kinesis defeats Gresham’s Law of Money that asserts “bad money drives out good”, by highly incentivising “good money” to circulate and be utilised as an effective medium of exchange. Someone who values money over other money is inclined to hoard it and not use it as a payment currency, but rather use the less valued currency for payments. This model has been broken in the Kinesis system as the reward for using the valued currency is so tremendously strong. The primary currency chosen for the Kinesis monetary system is a kinetically charged physical gold based currency. Gold being the greatest store of value, indestructible in every sense, physically rare in quantity and has been appreciated by human civilisation as money for longer than anything else. It is the money created by our universe and not by people. It is created by a rare cosmic event of two neutron stars colliding, so rare that the first time this event was witnessed by humankind was 17 August 2017. Hold gold in your hands and you can feel its energy. It is the colour of stars, it is the money of the universe. Gold is the undisputed champion of fair, honest and sustainable money. Put allocated gold on a kinetically charged decentralised rail system and you have a very special monetary system. We believe this is what we have achieved, and a lot more. The Kinesis system can be overlaid on top of anything that can be standardised, traded and stored as value. Accordingly, we are developing a kinetically charged digital currency suite with allocated title of bullion, fiat bank notes, cryptocurrencies and other assets that are physically and digitally securely stored in our allocated Kinesis banking and asset management system. By attaching a yield to digital currencies, risk/return ratios can be forecasted and virtually all currency and investment asset markets can be targeted and infiltrated. As such, over time we plan for more currencies and assets to be added, ultimately infiltrating more markets spread across the world. Kinesis will attract capital from: Cryptocurrency markets – currently little to no yield The gold and silver markets – currently little to no yield Fiat currency markets – low to negative yield via debt based interest rates Investment asset markets – comparatively low yields for stock market and property investment Ultimately, if someone can get the same asset at the same price, but with significantly lower risk and higher return, it makes little sense for them to not choose the asset with the better risk/return ratio, particularly when significant returns are on offer. As the Kinesis monetary system is one that allocates title directly to the ultimate beneficial owner, where banks conversely hold legal title of their customer deposits and put those deposits at risk, the Kinesis system is in fact much less risky and with much greater return than legacy alternatives. With global low to negative interest rates, bail-in provisions, depositors’ insurance being removed, and with banks holding legal title to their customer deposits, it makes no logical investment sense to choose risk and nil-to-negative return over the alternative Kinesis system with negligible risk and high return. In comparison to legacy fiat money and fractional banking systems, Kinesis seems too good to be true, but it isn’t. Once clearly understood, Kinesis will lead a highly disruptive paradigm shift in money. Kinesis has taken the very best properties of both old-world money and new-world innovation and combined them together to power banking and commerce in a new fair, inclusive and incentivised way. The result is something extraordinarily powerful that will change the way we all view money forever. The primary elements of Kinesis are: Gold & Silver - The primary currencies offering allocated 1:1 title to physical gold & silver – the greatest stable and definable stores of value for use in commercial and private transactions and investment. Yield - A perpetually recurring yield generated from economic activity, not from debt based interest like fiat currency – providing definable value via Net Present Value (NPV) calculations for use in commercial, institutional and retail investment. Cryptocurrency technology – can only be enhanced. Blockchain peer-to-peer decentralised distributed ledger technology – blockchain may become obsolete, but distributed ledger technology can only be enhanced. Kinesis can never be destroyed as these elements will never go away, never be valueless and can only be enhanced. Nothing can take away intrinsic asset value and the value of future cash flows, and technology will only ever be enhanced. Gold and silver have survived the greatest test of all, time, and so too will Kinesis. Other cryptocurrencies with value determined by the anonymous decentralised blockchain payment capabilities and their controlled supply scarcity are all at risk of losing value as their initial founding value proposition is diluted by others coming into the market with enhanced solutions. This is evidenced by Bitcoins’ dominance continuing to fall and has been witnessed in many other industries and markets throughout history as competitors rise. A major contributing factor to the volatility in cryptocurrencies is that they are impossible to value. By intrinsically backing a currency, hence back-stopping the value and defining the risk, and then placing a yield on it, hence defining the return and providing superior value, then a currency which is safe, stable and rewarding is created with a highly attractive investment risk/return ratio attached. This form of currency has necessary real-world application in both commerce and private transactions, along with attracting capital from institutional and retail investors and savers. This is not just a currency, this is a new parallel monetary system to sit alongside but integrated into the legacy problematic centrally controlled fiat and fractional monetary and banking systems. Kinesis is the undeniable superior alternative. This model is highly revolutionary alone, however to take it the next step further, already in place is a highly disruptive retail and institutional commercialisation strategy with unique distribution and committed adoption from day one of launch. Pre-existing investment commitments are in place for the Kinesis currency suite which will surpass the largest ICO to date by a significant multitude. Kinesis is being developed and being brought to launch by a consortium of industry leading organisations in the precious metal trading, mining, refining, exchange, technology, blockchain, mobile banking, vaulting, postal system and marketing spheres. From launch the system will have extensive institutional and retail distribution, integration, liquidity and adoption. Our liquidity, which will be provided by professional bullion market participants and others, will enable billions of dollars of value to efficiently enter and exit the market. Direct and indirect integrations will provide for immediate adoption into hundreds of millions of users. With the evolution of blockchain, cryptocurrencies and mobile devices, the people of the world have been presented with a profound opportunity. It’s an opportunity to apply empowering creativity to money and be part of a person-centric revolution. We have now been enabled to adopt and support a system that individually and collectively benefits us all based upon nothing more than participation. This system combines new world decentralised technology with the oldest, fairest and most sustainable form of money, to empower and serve the interests of us all equally and capitalistically.
WSJ Article "Bitcoin is Worth Zero" is scaring my investor friends. Can someone with more knowledgeable expertise please assess the claims in this article and their merit?
It would be helpful for us all to understand possible issues and arguments against bitcoin, even if the majority of us are fans and HODLers. Here is the mirror I found: https://i.imgur.com/UFn64Gp.png Claims in the article:
I'm inclined to say Bitcoin is worth $0, especially if Bitcoin's value depends on it being adopted as a global digital currency to replace dollars
No chance Bitcoin can replace dollar because it's badly designed. It can handle a pathetically small number of transactions, and used an inordinate amount of electricity to do so, making it entirely unsuitable to replace ordinary money
Even if Bitcoin worked better, it is in a Catch-22 because of Gresham’s law, the nostrum that bad money drives out good. Given the choice of spending inflationary government-issued money or something which holds its value, everyone would spend the bad paper stuff and hoard the Bitcoin. You wouldn’t want to be the person who spent 10,000 Bitcoins on two pizzas in 2010, when a Bitcoin was worth a fraction of a cent. Those Bitcoins are now worth $40 million. But if no one spends Bitcoin, it will never get established as a currency.
In any currency, the money supply multiplied by how often it circulates equals the price level times the number of transactions. For Bitcoin we can estimate three of the four variables, Mr. Davies says. He observed that even hardened criminals don’t set prices in Bitcoin, but rather in dollars, and then immediately convert. Assume that all drug dealing moves online, that Bitcoins circulate as fast as ordinary currencies, and estimate a $120 billion-a-year market for illegal drugs, and the formula spits out an ultimate value of $571 for a single Bitcoin. The more drugs traded, the higher the value, and the more Bitcoin hoarded rather than spent, the higher the value. Drug dealers might be willing to put up with the limitations of Bitcoin, notably the uncertain time taken to complete a purchase and the high transaction costs. Laundering dollars is more expensive. But studies cited by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime suggest that cryptocurrency-based online drug dealing remains relatively small, and focused on retail, meaning fewer and smaller transactions than Mr. Davies’ limiting assumption, so justifying a much lower Bitcoin price.
On this basis the current price of $3,950 is mostly speculation, and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive James Dimon’s comparison to the 17th-century Dutch tulip mania is apt.
Digital gold might be more appealing for Bitcoin’s true believers, who would surely prefer to avoid basing a currency on illegal activity. Gold is hopeless if you want to pay the mortgage or buy bread, but is useful insurance because we can be confident that if a government currency collapses the shiny metal will roughly hold its value. It helps that history holds plenty of examples of currencies losing all their value to hyperinflation while gold could still be bartered for food and shelter.
Gold has a value far above what is justified by its uses in electronics and jewelry only because (almost) everyone agrees that it has value. That “network effect” is what Bitcoin needs to establish itself, and the more attention it garners, the more likely it is to become established. Yet, gold has had thousands of years and a history of being used to back money to support its position. Technological disruption may be overturning many societal norms, but securing society-wide recognition as a safe asset takes more than the backing of tech evangelists and a bunch of get-rich-quick stock promoters.
Still, the potential to replace gold gives us some figures to work with. Thomson Reuters GFMS estimates there were 2,155 metric tons of gold held in exchange-traded funds. Switch all of that into Bitcoin and it would justify a price of about $5,500 for the 17 million Bitcoins currently outstanding.
We could be more optimistic and think Bitcoin might replace gold coins and bars. Leave aside that the gold is better than Bitcoin because gold doesn’t depend on having an electricity supply, and the 24,000 metric tons GFMS estimates have been bought for investment in the past half-century would justify a price of $61,000 for every Bitcoin.
If we assume that Bitcoin will either succeed completely in displacing gold or fail and be worth zero, it helps explain why the digital token has been so incredibly volatile, with a 40% loss in two weeks, and a 33% rebound since Friday’s low. Based on the simple choice between total success and failure, we can very roughly say that Bitcoin at 70% of the gold ETF-derived price suggests a 70% chance of displacing so-called paper gold as society’s chosen emergency store of value, and a 6% chance of displacing physical gold. Even digital dreamers should accept that is far too high.
In economics, Gresham's law is a monetary principle stating that "bad money drives out good". For example, if there are two forms of commodity money in circulation, which are accepted by law as having similar face value, the more valuable commodity will disappear from circulation. The law was named after Sir Thomas Gresham, a sixteenth-century financial agent of the English Crown in the city of Antwerp, to explain to Queen Elizabeth I what was happening to the English shilling. Her father, Henry VIII, had replaced 40 percent of the silver in the coin with base metals, to increase the government's income without raising taxes. Astute English merchants and even ordinary subjects would save the good shillings from pure silver and circulate the bad ones; hence, the bad money would be used whenever possible, and the good coinage would be saved and disappear from circulation.
When people have a choice of which to spend and which to hoard, they will tend to hoard the money that is a better money. The problem for all forms of fiat is that they are inferior for holding. No one wants to hold a currency that is inflating. Fiat has become a hot-potato that everyone wants to get rid of and no one wants to be left holding. This is manifesting in the form of rapid gains across the entire cryptosphere, in practically all of the leading coins. The vast majority of people buying crypto today do not actually understand why this is happening, they have only identified it as a phenomenon that has now trended in the same direction long enough, for so many years, that they have significant confidence it will continue to rise. However this trend is not good news for the people that control fiat and derive a large part of their wealth and power from their ability to shift the cost of printing more money onto the population at large and thus to enrich themselves dishonestly. Note today that South Korea is undertaking an emergency meeting to figure out what to do about cryptocurrency investing after South Koreans "discovered" bitcoin recently and began going in deep. Cryptocurrency, in all its leading forms, being inherently a better money than any form of government fiat simply because it is not subject to the whims of human management and corruption, is becoming a prime way for the masses to save. This is on the doorstep to creating a viable competitor to the stock market as a way to save. A large amount of the money now tied up in cryptocurrency undoubtedly would've found its way into Wall St. and similar traditional investment vehicles like property, had cryptocurrencies not existed. So all fiat is inferior for holding, and this was good for the stock markets of the world and the property markets of the world. This is a problem because someone has to hold fiat. And if all the world begins trying to get out of fiat and into cryptocurrencies, that has potential to creates the nightmare scenario that the state dreads above all: hyperinflation as people rush to escape a failing currency and those left holding the bag last lose most. This is why the US government is concerned about bitcoin, why places like Russia and China keep announcing bans or controls and then walking back on those ideas when they realize that bitcoin transactions cannot be regulated by the state in any reasonable way (well, they could turn off the internet, but that would result in open revolt of the populace, rock and hard place), and why South Korea is concerned now. The worst-case scenario for government is total repudiation of their currencies, ala Ecuador. But at the same time, the US government, and many other governments, have become afraid to take a hard line against new technologies because they all want to ride the wave of technological innovation and earn taxes from new industries that pop up, and they would rather not chase those industries into other countries and find themselves left out of the new technological bonanza. This also helps explain why multiple cryptocurrencies are doing well instead of just one, because the leading cryptocurrencies all have the properties of a good currency, better than fiat, and cryptocurrencies won't actually have to compete strongly with each other until fiat is replaced or deprecated worldwide. So why has BTC done better than all other cryptocurrencies in terms of unit price to this date apart from inflation-arbitrage. It's primarily because of mindshare and exposure and good-press. Think of BTC as being to cryptocurrency what AOL was to the internet in the 90's. At that time, AOL had created its own walled-garden and was on-boarding large numbers of people into using the internet in a safe and idiot-friendly way, while offering none of the power-features of the real internet. For the purposes of this analogy, Bitcoincash is the real internet of the 90's. And while massive numbers of people got into the internet for the first time through using AOL, it wasn't long before they realized they lived in a walled garden and the real thing was on the other side of that wall, and the whole world ultimately made the jump to the real internet. That is why so many of us think BTC will do well in the short-term as people are on-boarding into cryptocurrency through BTC, but that in the long-term, people will begin to realize that BCH is the real thing and why are we bothering to put up with the AOL of cryptocurrencies when this other thing, BCH, works so much damn better? And value will begin leaking out of BTC and into BCH, especially as use cases for BCH begin to multiply and an ecosystem of use-cases are built on top of BCH as a platform. That will begin to multiply the network-effect. And BCH devs are wisely keeping the use-cases as wide open as possible, that allows path-dependence effects to stay wide-open as well, allowing that ecosystem to grow. An ecosystem that the BTC-Core devs have already destroyed, strangling the baby in its crib, btw. So, in the same way that we had to educate the masses about cryptocurrency in general, it is now our task to explain to them why Bitcoincash is where focus needs to be going forward. Honestly, the hard work of validating the cryptocurrency concept is already done, now the job is to compete within the class, and we have every advantage.
This is my first contribution to the CryptoCurrency, and as already been commented it's too long, you can scroll down to the MAIN PART, so, please comment about changes you would make to it or just your opinion in general. Thanks Remember Nash equilibrium, Gresham's law, the rules of the Stasi? So the banking system is similar to the Stasi. But that's not the topic. Why did crypto currency become currency in general? The Nobel laureate in economics would have answered something like this: "At some point in time, the market fell into Nash's equilibrium, where everyone suddenly agreed that counting bitcoin as a currency is normal." Why do men wear trousers, and women wear skirts? Historically, in Scotland it wasn't done that way. It's just that at some point everyone agreed that this should be so. Nash equilibrium. Generally ... What is the currency? A currency is a means of indirect exchange. Once the means of exchange were the feathers of a pheasant, which before that did not cost anything. But then the demand arose and people said: "The feather will be a currency, a means of indirect exchange." Gradually, the general requirements for currency were formed: it should be simply divided into parts, and its value does not change; It is easy to carry around; And it should have a long shelf life. Well and the main thing - people should be ready to use currency as a means of exchange. With the crypto currency the same thing happened: people were READY to use it. Now I'm ready to exchange my phone for bitcoin. It is clear that all other criteria for crypto currency is, perhaps, even better than any other currency (it is much easier to store, transfer, divide, and it is eternal). And why there was a crypto currency? One of the main reasons, in my opinion - is the huge embitterment of people on the banking system with all of its rules, which are being promoted under the auspices of a mythical struggle against scammers and other scoundrels. So, the current banking system is similar to the Stasi, to which I must explain why I have such a gait, and not another, and why I go to work such a route, and not another. And then, unless two-meter fences stop real criminals? When criminals need to break into the banking system, they just buy a bank. All these safety rules are, in fact, useless. Therefore, there is a global irritation of people by the banking system. This can be seen everywhere - and in business of any size, too, from small to large. The annoyance created a request for some kind of analogue to the current system. There was a crypto currency. And the process can not be stopped - the crypto currency will take its place in the world economy. What a question for now. The problem is that in fact, the crypto currency is not used today precisely as a means of exchange. The phenomenon is called the Gresham's law: no one wants to pay with the currency, which constantly and strongly becomes more expensive. Everyone has heard a story with two pizzas that were bought for 10 thousand BTC in 2010 (just curious if pizza shop kept those bitcoins until today). Who wants a pizza for $ 15 million? Or do you want to drive in a Toyota car, bought today for 30 BTC, after learning in a year that they paid $3 million for it? Therefore, the crypto currency is used as a means of accumulation and speculation. At the same time, the process of continuous growth leads to the fact that basic crypto-currencies lose their properties as a means of settlement - stability. They turn into the semblance of shares of a rapidly growing company. And who wants to sell or change the goods and services of treasuring shares today, if tomorrow they will cost more. This is problem. Stablecoin The volatility of the crypto currency is the subject of long-standing discussions, in which the words "bubble" and "speculative instrument" can often be heard. The problem is solved including the launch of special settlement crypto-currencies, the so-called "stablecoins". This is a crypto currency, the value of which is determined not only by the demand for it, but also by more established methods. In the world there were several attempts to create such stablecoins. As a rule, they were tied to either the value of the fiat currencies - the dollar, the euro - or raw materials (commododis) - oil, gold, and so on. But due to various reasons, they were not widely used. First of all, because the creators of such currencies violated the principle of blockchain - distribution and independence. They issued crypto currency, they sold it, and they bought security on the proceeds. And the fact that the security was stored and controlled by the release organizers did not inspire confidence in the community. Now there are more advanced projects. In general, there is a hypothesis that the future is behind the "stable", tied to commododes. It is based on the fact that in the society in general and in the economy in particular, the so-called fatigue of the material of the classical unsecured money. At the same time, we see that the same dollar, euro, yuan, Brazilian real and all other classical currencies are also subject to volatility. And all this against the backdrop of a global rise in the cost of money. The economy is looking for alternatives. But will the social request for a block of commodities be critically higher than for classical money? I am not sure. But the fact that it will be more than now - most likely. Right now, there are several interesting stablecoin projects in the world: There is a project Tether, which stably enters the TOP-50 on capitalization (just over $300 million). Tether is the dollar's coin, 1 to 1. In Israel, they launched a start-up, which tries to make a crypto currency, tied to oil. In fact, they are not yet very successful, because they can not solve the problem of oil storage - it is difficult to store. There are projects that try to link the crypto currency to computing power, to electricity, such as SONM. You can easily explain to your mother about the crypto currency, tied to gold. I have not talked about the main (yet) and most obvious commodity - gold. Gold is a commodity that everyone understands. Gold accounts for about 5-10% of the global investment market. Gold is a natural limited natural resource. According to open data, the gold reserves of governments are about 30 thousand tons, and about the same in the hands of citizens. Total about 60 thousand tons. About 3 thousand tons of gold is extracted every year. This is a stable figure that can not change dramatically in any direction due to distributed production in different countries and established technologies. Therefore, the value of gold, expressed in goods and services, practically does not change. All this makes gold the ideal equivalent of calculation. Actually, it was so throughout the history of human development. Even the first money was tied to gold until governments decided to replace the gold mining process with a simpler process of printing paper money. Well, the main thing: you easily explain to your mother about the crypto-currency, tied to gold. And she will understand you. Now there are several "golden" crypto projects. There are not so many, but everyone has a different concept: Impressive is the OneGram project from Dubai, which plans to raise $ 500 million for the ICO, which began on May 27 and which should end on September 24. For today, 22% of 12,400,786 tokens sold at $ 43.18 apiece are sold. "Dubai" and "gold" sounds somehow impressive, you must agree. OneGram is tied to the stored physical gold. They have a content, strange, in my opinion, a counter: they position themselves as a project for Muslims. In the world of blockade, any artificial limitation causes questions, because it contradicts the very concept of technology. True, according to the founders themselves, now most of the investors of the project are not Muslims. Still there is a project of the British Royal Mint - Royal Mint Gold, in which one token is tied to one gram of gold. The project raises questions from the point of view of decentralization. Another ambitious project is the American-Australian OZCoin. It is provided with 100 thousand ounces (slightly more than 2.8 tons) of gold at 24 carats. Also, there is a "Russian" Goldmint. I took the "Russian" in quotes, because it has international team. The project plans to hold ICO in September, and in May held pre ICO and collected for a couple of days $600 thousand. Imagine that there is an ingot of gold that is able to be transported quickly and cost-free to anywhere in the world without a chance of being stolen. Usually verification of the team removes 9/10 of the risk - the probability of "scam" or some illegal actions is equated to zero. I always say that Whitepaper, the business plan in the ICO world is secondary to the team. It does not matter what you do, but who you are. If tomorrow Elon Musk will grow cows, then investors will believe in his project. Overview of TOP-15 crypto-currency Now about the crypto currency in general. On the Internet, you can easily find sites where you can see the capitalization of each crypto currency, which is drawn at the crypto-exchange, its current price in dollars, the schedule of price changes, the amount of currency that is traded on the market. Such statistics will help a little to understand the beginning investors, but give at least a general idea of what is happening. I will briefly talk about several crypto-currencies in the TOP-50 on capitalization: what are their essence, advantages and disadvantages. And despite the fact that in many of them I invested money, I will not give any specific advice on investment here. MAIN PART
The analogy from the real world is gold. This currency appeared first on the market, and therefore occupies (so far) the first place in terms of popularity, capitalization and exchange rate relative to the dollar. All other currencies, which appeared later, began to be called altcoins, and bitcoin is still a benchmark, from which all are repelled. Bitcoin is a crypto currency that can only be sent, received and stored. In doing so, it has many disadvantages inherent in the architecture itself: it is slow, difficult to scale, requires a lot of power for mining, a lot of storage space, transactions are expensive, and cryptography can be hacked if desired. Here are the cons: Bitcoin is slow, means that transactions in bitcoin occur every 10 minutes. To confirm the transaction, you need to mine, and this is a very energy-intensive process. To increase the number of users (scalability), you need to increase the computing power of computers. Bitcoin was not such a decentralized system, as it was announced at the very beginning. Theoretically, the miners can unite into huge pools and manage the network. The maximum number of bitcoins that can be released is 21 million. To date, they have already produced 16.75 million. What will happen when the total volume reaches the limit? Obviously, there will be a so-called hardfork, when it will be decided to create a new version of the bitcoin-network. This means a big vote, if you want - holding a referendum among the holders of the bitcoins. The Chinese holders of the Crypto-currency were in favor of holding such a referendum already in September. After him, perhaps, the "constitution" of bitcoin will change. And we know how constitutions change easily and quickly in different countries ...
An analogy from the real world is the new Microsoft. "Ether" begins to press bitcoin in terms of popularity. Probably, this currency has more prospects. If bitcoin can act only as a means of exchange and storage, then Ethereum has a number of advantages. The main thing is the ability to create smart contracts. Now, this platform is the most popular in the world in the construction of the block economy, and is used with numerous ICO. Ethereum inherited almost all the diseases of bitcoin. Yes, it's faster - it updates every 10 seconds (that is 60 times faster), but it has the same scaling problems (the recent case with SONM is an example), power consumption and storage. It may well challenge the leadership of bitcoin in the near future.
An analogy from the real world is the new VISA. The project team is trying to make a new payment system so that it can make payments in all currencies. The advantage of this currency is that it is used by banks. However, it is not decentralized. Coins can not be mined, therefore, their number does not increase. Ripple has a huge speed advantage over BTC and ETH, but the operations are not so transparent. For the classical banking system, this is normal - there anonymity has never been welcomed.
An analogy from the real world is platinum, which is cheaper than gold. Absolute analog of the bitcoin. Faster, better in all respects - but just turned out to be the second. But it is worth it in terms of diversifying investment in the same bitcoin. However, there is nothing from the point of view of innovation.
The analogy from the real world is Alibaba (not Amazon). Alibaba - the largest online store with a multi-billion dollar turnover. But still understand that it is still not as steep as Amazon. Classic may even be more expensive than regular Ethereum, but there are some nuances. ETC appeared after the Ethereum hardfork, which occurred last fall, and still does not cause trust in the crypto community. The main attention is still paid to ETH, and all the iconic projects are being conducted on this platform.
Dash and NEM
The analogy from the real world is "not clear who." Honestly, I do not often see these currencies. NEM is mainly drawn in Japan, where it is officially allowed to buy and sell goods for crypto currency. The number of coins is always one less than 9 billion, additional emission is not provided, so there is no mining, but there is a so-called harvesting. A major jump in the NEM course occurred in May, when a closed Mijin platform was created on the basis of NEM, through which Japanese banks can conduct secure transactions. NEM is built on the example of bitcoin, but there are no fundamental differences in architecture. Dash - crypto currency, whose transactions are completely anonymous. Many people talk about this as an advantage, but think: why does an ordinary person have complete anonymity in transactions? Still, all decisions about changes in the "constitution" take place with the help of a general vote, that is, the Dash-network is completely decentralized. Naturally, both currencies work faster than a bitcoin and have a number of software advantages.
An analogy from the real world is the new Google. A real innovation in the world of crypto currency. It offers a fundamentally new paradigm that can change everything at all. IOTA is also called the "crypto currency of things". It appeared five years ago, but it has become popular just now. As soon as it entered the stock exchange, it immediately burst into the Top 10 crypto-currency. How does bitcoin work? In order to perform a bitcoin transaction, the miner must do some work to confirm the transaction. Spend time, huge amounts of energy and allocate space for storage. In the case of IOTA, you can independently confirm the transaction with your device - for example, a regular phone. Your smartphone confirms two other transactions. Those transactions are confirmed by other two. And so on. The more users, the faster and better the network. Now IOTA users have accumulated a critical mass and the currency has become very popular. There is no limit to scalability, no miners are needed, so transactions are free. You do not need to pay a commission to the miners, you do not spend computing power. In general, this is a real bomb that threatens to make a revolution. IOTA solves all problems inherent in bitcoin (limited, high demands on computing power, pseudo-decentralization, data growth and storage problem, slow speed).
The analogy from the real world is JFC Sistema. Briefly, unlike bitcoin, Monero emission is not limited, but transactions take up several times more space than bitcoin. But this is not the most interesting. In general, low-cost transactions, good translation speed, good mining.
An analogy from the real world is the Empire State Building. EOS - the evolution of the currency BitShares and Steemit (which, by the way, seriously criticized that does not prevent BitShares from getting close to the top 10 on capitalization). It is based on a breakthrough technology, which can be compared with the appearance of a blockade. In theory, they can replace Ethereum or enter into synergy with it. In terms of technology, the project is better than Ethereum. Developers have created a new language, and now the EOS platform creates an operating system on which it will be possible to build separate applications. The logic is this: all databases, all web programming will be transferred to the block system. New technologies will allow asynchronous launch of different applications, which will seriously increase the speed of the OS based on EOS. The team expects that the whole world will work on EOS. In general, to be honest, this is the world of "Crypt 3.0".
An analogy from the real world - ? A useful tool not to lose on converting, not to depend on the legislation of different countries, taxes and so on. There is also a similar currency Tether, which is tied to the dollar 1 to 1. If you want to sell or buy dollars on the blockchain, you should come here. These are not speculative instruments. (Here you need to understand that BitShares itself as a unit of account is also "floating"). It is used as a currency for collecting commissions for a transaction of a fiat currency. It can be speculated. But if we want to operate with fiat money in the blockchain, we can do it inside the BitShares system). And 5 more crypto-currencies from the top 50 If you look further, in the top 50 crypto-currencies there are a few notable projects. I will list a few.
An analogy from the real world is the stock exchange. It is essentially a stock exchange: an Ethereum platform on which you can exchange different cryptocurrencies (but they all have to be the ERC20 standard - this is the most common Ethereum standard on which most projects are developed). Everything is regulated by smart contracts. This is a new economic tool in the world of blockchain. In fact, they brought the derivatives into the blockchain, which no one had done before. It seems to me that this is a niche product, which, however, can grow 5-10 times.
An analogy from the real world is McDonalds. A good, fashionable currency, I see future in them. Fast, cheap in a transaction, profitable in the mining. It is loved by miners - in other words, market providers like it. And it is like McDonald's - does not belong to anyone. 99.9% of McDonald's shares are traded on the stock exchange, but the largest shareholder owns only 2% of the shares. Decreded as McDonalds.
An analogy from the real world is Netflix. Fantastic project. And by "fantastic" I do not mean "cool", but the original meaning of the word. The business model is incomprehensible, but the team is good. They try to work in the market of events predictions. While the project is in the alpha stage and no real money goes in there, the team really knows how to correctly analyze the data. Aragon can become crypto-Netflix. How they do it - I have no idea. But just to remind you, 7 years ago Netflix was unprofitable.
thoughts on today's WSJ article re BTC from James Mackintosh?
Behind every bubble is a good idea bursting to get out, and bitcoin kind of looks like a good idea, at least if you squint a bit. A digital currency without borders that governments can’t control and that allows secret online transactions? I’m in. Bitcoin itself? Not so much. So is a single bitcoin worth $500,000, $5,000, $500 or $0? I’m inclined to say $0, especially if bitcoin’s value depends on it being adopted as a global digital currency to replace dollars. There is no chance whatsoever that bitcoin can displace the dollar, for the simple reason that it is badly designed. Bitcoin can handle a pathetically small number of transactions, and uses an inordinate amount of electricity to do so, making it entirely unsuitable to replace ordinary money. Even if bitcoin worked better, it is in a Catch-22 because of Gresham’s law, the nostrum that bad money drives out good. Given the choice of spending inflationary government-issued money or something which holds its value, everyone would spend the bad paper stuff and hoard the bitcoin. You wouldn’t want to be the person who spent 10,000 bitcoins on two pizzas in 2010, when a bitcoin was worth a fraction of a cent. Those bitcoins are now worth $40 million. But if no one spends bitcoin, it will never get established as a currency. There are two somewhat less ambitious claims for bitcoin that could give it value. The first is that it is a limited form of money because of its usefulness for dealing illegal drugs and dodging capital controls. The second is that it is a form of digital gold: an insurance that will keep its value even if governments confiscate or inflate away the buying power of the currencies they issue. Let us unpack the idea of bitcoin being based on illegal transactions. Dan Davies, a bank analyst at Frontline Analysts in London, came up with a value thanks to bitcoin’s built-in limit of 21 million in circulation. In any currency, the money supply multiplied by how often it circulates equals the price level times the number of transactions. For bitcoin we can estimate three of the four variables, Mr. Davies says. He observed that even criminals don’t set prices in bitcoin, but rather in dollars, and then immediately convert. Assume that all drug dealing moves online, that bitcoins circulate as rapidly as ordinary currencies and estimate a $120 billion-a-year market for illegal drugs, and the formula spits out an ultimate value of $571 for a single bitcoin. The more drugs traded, the higher the value, and the more bitcoin hoarded rather than spent, the higher the value. But studies cited by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime suggest that cryptocurrency-based online drug dealing remains relatively small, and focused on retail, meaning fewer and smaller transactions than Mr. Davies’s limiting assumption, so justifying a much lower bitcoin price. On this basis the recent price of $3,950 is mostly speculation, and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive James Dimon’s comparison to the 17th-century Dutch tulip mania is apt. Bitcoin is “being driven all over the place by speculative portfolio flows,” says Mr. Davies. Digital gold might be more appealing for bitcoin’s true believers, who would surely prefer to avoid basing a currency on illegal activity. Gold is hopeless if you want to pay the mortgage or buy bread, but is useful insurance because we can be confident that if a government currency collapses the shiny metal will roughly hold its value. It helps that history holds plenty of examples of currencies losing all their value to hyperinflation while gold could still be bartered for food and shelter. Gold has a value far above what is justified by its uses in electronics and jewelry only because (almost) everyone agrees that it has value. That “network effect” is what bitcoin needs to establish itself, and the more attention it garners, the more likely it is to become established. Yet gold has had thousands of years and a history of being used to back money to support its position. Technological disruption may be overturning many societal norms, but securing society-wide recognition as a safe asset takes more than the backing of tech evangelists and a bunch of get-rich-quick stock promoters. Still, the potential to replace gold gives us some figures to work with. Thomson Reuters GFMS estimates there were 2,155 metric tons of gold held in exchange-traded funds. Switch all of that into bitcoin and it would justify a price of about $5,500 for the 17 million bitcoins currently outstanding. We could be more optimistic and think bitcoin might replace gold coins and bars. Leave aside that the gold is better than bitcoin because gold doesn’t depend on having an electricity supply, and the 24,000 metric tons GFMS estimates have been bought for investment in the past half-century would justify a price of $61,000 for every bitcoin. If we assume that bitcoin will either succeed completely in displacing gold or fail and be worth zero, it helps explain why the digital token has been so incredibly volatile, with a 40% loss in two weeks, and a 33% rebound since Friday’s low. Based on the simple choice between total success and failure, we can very roughly say that bitcoin at 70% of the gold ETF-derived price suggests a 70% chance of displacing so-called paper gold as society’s chosen emergency store of value, and a 6% chance of displacing physical gold. Even digital dreamers should accept that is far too high.
Cost, Value, Price, Money, and Emergy -- Developing ideas, request for references (and sanity check)
Over the past several months I've been developing some thoughts on fundamental underpinnings of economics, particularly the concepts of cost, value, price, money, and working in an ecological principle, emergy (with an 'M'). I've found some references, I'm seeking more for both conventional and unconventional thinking. The most recent draft is at Ello, "What's the value of the Universe in dollars? All of them". I'm not entirely satisfied, though it's shaping up fairly well.
My terms aren't quite as typically used in economic discussion, though close, and I believe defensible.
Goods: Variously and shorthand for, resources, products, services, labour, capital. Anything exchanged economically.
Cost: The requirements for producing or providing a good. All costs are opportunity costs.
Value: Here I mean use value, which is close to, perhaps the same as, utility. My aim however is to have a quantifiable and not merely rankable concept. Austrians may find this unfamiliar.
Price: Market value or exchange value. What two parties in a transaction agree to give up, or make available, to exchange a good.
I've been developing these ideas largely at The Other Place, within my Economics Collection. In particular, in date order:
A development of Emergy to Currency (26 Jan 2016). Elliott T. Campbell, David R. Tilley, "The eco-price: How environmental emergy equates to currency", Ecosystem Services. March 2014, Vol.7:128–140, doi:10.1016/j.ecoser.2013.12.002. "Energy flows through economies in a hierarchical pattern with vast amounts supporting the base while each step has less and less flowing through it. Money is inextricably connected to many of these energy flows in a countercurrent."
Value: a red herring (24 Feb 2016). The idea that in most market circumstances, setting a specific value on a good is a distraction. I'm now thinking I've taken this a bit too far, but it remains useful. Specifically, in many arguments the case is made that 1) value matters, 2) it cannot be precisely known (because it's an internal mental/psychic state), and therefore attempts to prescribe or control or quantify it are bound to failure. My upshot: so long as value exceeds costs the market's going to function. And, on the large/aggregate scale, ecological/biological type methods to assess value work sufficiently for analytic purposes.
As noted, this is a frequent topic of discussion. Among those discussing price, cost, and value that I'm aware:
Usual caveats -- this is Wikipedia, a guide but not a source. Reassuringly, economic value seems to match my use:
[E]conomic value is not the same as market price, nor is economic value the same thing as market value.
And yes, this seems like a continuing puzzle in economics:
The economic value of a good or service has puzzled economists since the beginning of the discipline. First, economists tried to estimate the value of a good to an individual alone, and extend that definition to goods which can be exchanged. From this analysis came the concepts value in use and value in exchange.
In neoclassical economics, the value of an object or service is often seen as nothing but the price it would bring in an open and competitive market... As such, everything is seen as a commodity and if there is no market to set a price then there is no economic value.
A/K/A "value in exchange".
In classical economics, the value of an object or condition is the amount of discomfort/labor saved through the consumption or use of an object or condition (Labor Theory of Value).
Steve Keen makes the claim that "value" refers to "the innate worth of a commodity, which determines the normal ('equilibrium') ratio at which two commodities exchange."
Citing: Steve Keen Debunking Economics, New York, Zed Books (2001) p. 271, ISBN 1-86403-070-4, OCLC 45804669 In which case, Steve and I disagree. See W.F. Lloyd and M. Say. Though:
To Keen and the tradition of David Ricardo, this corresponds to the classical concept of long-run cost-determined prices, what Adam Smith called "natural prices" and Karl Marx called "prices of production."
That I agree with more, though I'd clarify by calling it the innate cost. Any value must then exceed this cost. There's John Ruskin who wrote on the moral concept of value in Unto This Last. Notably:
It is impossible to conclude, of any given mass of acquired wealth, merely by the fact of its existence, whether it signifies good or evil to the nation in the midst of which it exists. Its real value depends on the moral sign attached to it, just as strictly as that of a mathematical quantity depends on the algebraic sign attached to it. Any given accumulation of commercial wealth may be indicative, on the one hand, of faithful industries, progressive energies, and productive ingenuities: or, on the other, it may be indicative of mortal luxury, merciless tyranny, ruinous chicanery.
Ruskin influenced Gandhi. Mises appears:
Economists such as Ludwig von Mises asserted that "value," meaning exchange value, was always the result of subjective value judgements.... Thus, it was false to say that the economic value of a good was equal to what it cost to produce or to its current replacement cost.
Among the classic works on the topic. Jevons' contents cover many of the topics and concepts I've been blundering into, though he's also concerned with the physical instanciation -- at the time of his writing, banknotes were still fairly new, and the were serious questions over multi-metallic standards (e.g., gold or silver, or gold and silver). Briefly:
"Want of coincidence in barter", measure of value, subdivision
Utility and value are not intrinsic
Value expresses a ratio of exchange (my: "price is a rate")
Functions of money: standard of value, store of value. (But not "medium of exchange")
Speculation of early history
Qualities of the material of money: utility/value, portability, indestructibility, homogeneity, divisibility, stability, cognizability
Credit documents and systems, banking system, and clearing-houses
The quantity of money needed by a nation
Does a revised model offer any explanatory power?
There are several questions, most pressing of which is "am I completely nuts". Running close behind is "what does this buy us"? I'd really like to be able to explain contradictions, paradoxes, or failures of existing economic theory in establishing value. There's the case of under-priced resources and the shutdown decision, noted above. The dual approach to pollution externalities is another. Not sure if this is Coase, Lucas, Rawls, or another, but essentially, if one party pollutes and another has to deal with the consequences, conventional economic theory can make an equal case that either the polluter pays a fine for the harm, or the nonpolluter pays the polluter not to pollute. Being able to explain this would be nice. If price is simply a control-system cost, then summing up control system costs over the entire economy ... doesn't really seem like a sensible operation. It tells you how much encouragement is needed to precipitate trade, but needn't address either cost nor value. This suggests that computing economic prices isn't ... all it's cracked up to be. And that perhaps cost is a better basis. It could well be that ecologists are chasing the wrong target. They should be mapping economic costs to ecological ones, not the other way around? Skimming Jevons, he addresses the cognizability of currency -- that is, you want people to be able to instantly recognise money as money. And not have to test it for worth or value. That's tickling some nerves, with Gresham's Law and Bitcoin both coming to mind. Gresham's Law: readily recognised value is a positive. Bitcoin; inherently noncognizable. Observed economic behavior should be describable or derivable from this explanation. Coming up with a normative this is how things should be story ... that doesn't describe reality, isn't particularly useful. It is, however, practical. I'm aware that some of what I'm suggesting goes against a few thousand years of economic thinking. On the other hand, some of what I've blundered into appears to be well in line with what's come before, and I'm independently deriving it. Some simple targets would be to describe products made or labour provided continuously. Being able to describe pricing behavior and pricing mechanisms, and to show how stocks (that is, fixed quantities of goods) or asset classes behave, would be useful. Describing monetary behavior more generally even more interesting. And that all remains a work in process. As I noted at the top: this is something I've been developing for the past couple of months. I'm researching what I can find of existing theory and understanding. Additional references, and noting where I'm off in the weeds would be highly appreciated.
Markets and Price-Setting: Thoughts on information, created goods and services, fixed-supply commodities, financial instruments, and other market values behave
I've been reflecting on Paul Mason's Postcapitalism, particularly as concerns what he identifies as a hum-dinger of information goods: Information goods destroy the price formation mechanism based on scarcity. That's one of a few cases in which markets as price-setting mechanisms fail, or are subject to very high degrees of ambiguity. Four particular instances come to mind:
Information goods, as identified by Mason.
Existing products -- effectively the resale market.
Financial assets: goods whose price is predicated on scarcity and some ascribed basis for value.
Extractive goods: resources which are used faster than their replacement rates.
Each poses specific failures to usefully set a market price that corresponds to the true costs of production. What I'm posing here is more an exploration of aspects I've found, and still find, contradictory. I'm not claiming to have final answers, though I'm starting to land a few good leads.
On "natural prices"
While much lay discussion of economics holds that the market price is the fair price for a good or service, the question of what a "natural" or "fair" price has occupied a great deal of economic thought and discussion since the time of the Greeks. Adam Smith in Wealth of Nations proposed a definition which remains close to what's commonly accepted today -- a total cost of inputs, plus normal profits:
When the price of any commodity is neither more nor less than what is sufficient to pay the rent of the land, the wages of the labour, and the profits of the stock employed in raising, preparing, and bringing it to market, according to their natural rates, the commodity is then sold for what may be called its natural price.
The cases I'm considering here all violate this in one way or another. This is troubling as they're increasingly key to economic activity.
Information wants to be free.
-- John Perry Barlow In an efficient market, quality information is consistently undervalued. In this case: fixed costs of production are high, but marginal costs of production are low. It takes a lot of time and research to create a quality book, a piece of music, software, news reporting, pharmaceutical, chemical process, etc., but once developed the costs of manufacture are far, far less, effectively zero in many cases. That's one fundamental contradiction of the "knowledge economy". There's the further problem of Gresham's law as applied to information: cheap, low-quality information tends to drive out high-value, but expensive-to-produce information. Ask anyone in the news, broadcast, or publishing industries.
There are good cars and bad cars (which in America are known as "lemons").
-- George Akerloff, "The Market for Lemons" This is the second-hand market -- goods which are re-sold by an initial buyer, after initial purchase. Flea markets, swaps, Craigslist, consignment stores. And antique shops and auctions. The fundamental characteristic of each of these is that the good already exists. There is no production function. Price, instead, is effectively a motivator -- what does it take to convince the holder of a good to part with it? There's a Spanish folk saying I've only recently learned, its English translation "Buy from desperate people, and sell to newlyweds." In both cases, the supply and demand curves are shifted to the advantage of the middleman buying in the first instance and selling in the second. In some cases, there's an alternative to buying used: you can buy a new item or make one yourself. For many utilitarian goods (clothing, furniture, children's toys, used books or records), the second-hand market offers considerable savings over new or self-made. Keepsakes and mementos have highly asymmetric valuations: the holder usually ascribes a high sentimental value, while others may view the item as little more than clutter or "old junk". In this case it's typically unlikely for the piece to be sold -- the holder's valuation is higher than any potential buyer's, unless the former is desperate. Antiquities or fine arts, as opposed to personal mementos and keepsakes with high sentimental value pose a different situation: if it is the specific item in question and not a functionally equivalent replacement that is sought, then there is no ascribable production cost. You cannot make a "new" original Rembrandt, or Picasso, or Ming Dynasty vase, or piece of ancient Egyptian art. Price of such goods is entirely dependent on the demand for such products. It calls into question the entire concept of what a "natural price" of such a good is. This case is actually the genesis for this essay -- the example I had in mind was of a Stradivarius violin -- there are about 650 left in the world, largely manufactured between 1680 and 1700, and present market values range from hundreds of thousands to millions of dollars. This despite notable failures for blind listening tests to distinguish or prefer Strads over other instruments. While modern mass-produced violins can be had for as little as £80 new, more expensive hand-crafted instruments comparable in tonal quality to a Strad fetch about £15,000. That's still a considerable discount on the Strad -- by a factor of 200. The embodied labor?
It takes around 120 hours to make a violin, 150 hours for a viola and 300 hours for a cello.
That's an all-in £125/hr cost of labor, assuming labor is the principle input. Similarly, nearly indistinguishable art forgeries are fairly common, there's the case of "Jefferson's Bottles", literally an instance of new wine in old bottles. Or forgeries of antiques, antiquities, and the like. In all cases, the immediate quality of the forgeries is quite difficult to tell, though dating of materials by radioisotopic means usually manages to distinguish them. What's changed is the perception. What marketers call "selling the story". Or, quite bluntly: changing the demand curve for a product. Extant products fall into two general categories:
Those for which there is an imbued additional value -- above and beyond the intrinsic use-value of the product. These are products which tend to be either asset classes (if the ascribed value is widely shared) or keepsakes (where the ascribed value is personal -- "sentimental"). Goods with high sentimental value rarely sell -- the owner ascribes more worth than the market. Works serving as an asset class (specie or fiat currencies, precious metals, stocks, bonds, other financial instruments) have effectively no sentimental value.
Those for which the intrinsic value is the primary consideration. This is the class for which the economizing purchaser can save a great deal over buying new.
And finally, extant goods have the "lemon" problem, and in fact, in the form of the used-car market, are the basis for George Akerloff's "The Market for Lemons" paper noted in the epigraph for this section. In the case of established goods (e.g., antiquities and fine arts), the asymmetry detailed by Akerloff tends to be minimized. In the case of certain complex goods: automobiles and electronics certainly come to mind, concerns on the part of the buyer over the serviceability of the good in question tends to 1) keep prices depressed and 2) limit the number of quality items actually offered to market -- the seller knows that it will be unlikely to recapture the true value of a quality item.
Because that's where the money is.
-- Willie Sutton, on why he robbed banks. Here, you've almost the inverse situation of information goods: marginal cost of production is exceptionally high - - there's either a workfactor cost, or simply a finite supply (for numerous reasons, to be explored more). Will Rogers on land: they're not making it anymore. The asset value of precious metals is that their supply is (theoretically) constrained by the high costs of mining. Bitcoin is similar. But the intrinsic utility of the good is close to nil. A dollar bill has little intrinsic value, or, if you prefer, a $100 dollar bill. It's a piece of paper, ink, and anti-copyright features. The production cost is a factor of regulatory limits on production. Gold and silver have some utility, but this is generally less than is reflected in its exchange value. Diamonds are a case of induced scarcity, though with a few other twists which tends to inflate the retail value while affording virtually no resale value. The added value by virtue of being money is referred to as seigniorage:
the difference between the value of money and the cost to produce and distribute it.
What's key is the "story": not all rare things are valuable, but all valuable things are rare. The key to creating a market for a given asset class is to convince people that other people are convinced of the value. It's a bit of a circular definition. Some assets have value ascribed to them. I've previously discussed what gives money value, in particular the United States Dollar. There are five key aspects:
It is legal tender: debts incurred must be considered legally discharged when paid in dollars, at least within the United States.
It is the required form of payment of taxes. That is, some 40% of total US economic financial turnover is in the form of tax obligations.
It is the global reserve currency. International debt settlements are generally paid in U.S. dollars.
It is the global payment standard for petroleum. That's about $3.1 trillion in global payments again, creating a use for dollars by every oil-importing nation.
It is the basis of paying off debts denominated in dollars, including consumer, mortgage, educational, and other loans.
Buy land. They ain't making any more of the stuff.
-- Will Rogers Other asset classes are real, in the sense that they're tangible, with real estate being a classic example. In Smith's time, the value of land was largely based on the produce one could derive from it: crops, lumber, cattle, fish. Perhaps wind or water power. In urban economics one learns that the value of housing (whether rented or sold) is based on the earning potential and travel time associated with it -- generally housing costs fall as one moves further from an urban center. But a secondary factor of housing is as an investment, though as many critics has pointed out, the long-term performance isn't particularly good, the carrying costs are high, the asset can be highly illiquid (especially when it's carrying a mortgage valued more highly than the property itself). In some areas title may be difficult to establish -- Hernando de Soto and Niall Ferguson discuss this in their respective books The Mystery of Capital and The Ascent of Money in the context of South America, and the resulting difficulties and alternative conventions. One interesting conclusion is that surplus profits of labor (or of business) tend to be subsumed by increasing housing (or office / store-space) costs.
These are also consistently undervalued. Any resource that's being extracted or consumed at rates greater than its replenishment is effectively an extractive good. The typical examples are minerals and mining, and fossil fuels, but this can include other and nominally renewable resources: topsoil, freshwater, groundwater, rhinoceros horn, timber, topsoil, fisheries.... The market price is set by the access price: how much effort it takes to extract the resource, but not a depletion allowance for the fact that the removed unit(s) will not be restored. The latter is a suggestion of many authors, including Herman Daly. It's interesting to note cases of societies which were formerly based on extractive technologies which have run through the entire resource and have lost their former wealth. A classic instance is the island nation of Nauru, briefly the wealthiest nation on a per-capita income basis during the 1980s due to deposits of phosphate rock -- bird guano -- valuable as fertilizer. Its 9,000 inhabitants on 21 km2 now rely on revenues for running a detention center for the Australian government. It's also served as a tax haven and offered passports to foreign nationals. The export land model of Jeffrey Brown describes the dynamics of oil exporting nations as domestic consumption rises to exceed total extraction capacity. Some analysis of the Arab Spring revolves around falling oil extraction in Egypt, Syria, and Libya as contributory causes, though a prolonged drought in Syria has also been mentioned. Cataloging a list of other nations formerly based on exported natural resource wealth could prove illuminating.
Overconsumption of Luxury Goods
As a counterpoint, there are products obtained unsustainably for which the market price is high (though possibly still undervalued). Rhinoceros horn would be an example, whale meat, and tropical hardwoods others. Often within what's a globally small market -- rhino horn is largely valued in south-east Asia and China, whale meat in Japan -- there's a significant social signaling status (Veblen good) for the product. Paradoxically, price is itself a signifier of signaling value, and total quantity demanded, while in excess of replenishment factor, is such that increasing the cost of the good doesn't reduce overall demand (or at least not sufficiently to avoid exhaustion or extinction of the source). Arguably the price is still too low (there should be an extinction/exhaustion premium), but even with increasing prices due to scarcity, the market response is not rational. Moreover, the value ascribed these goods isn't intrinsic to their practical application but to social signalling status. That is: a cheaper replacement would be inferior simply on the basis that it's cheaper, and hence, a weaker signal.
Information vs. Assets
The most striking aspect of Mason's Postcapitalism lecture is his juxtaposition of information goods, in which scarcity drives prices to zero, and of financial assets, in which an ascribed value increases the worth of an asset above its intrinsic value. But more critically:
The key contradiction in modern capitalism is in this emerging contradiction between free socially produced abundant [information] goods, and a system of monopolies, banks, and governments who are forced, in order to survive, to behave desperately to maintain this information asymmetry.
That is: Facebook or other service providers retaining proprietary control, and often, secrecy, over their APIs. There's an intrinsic fight between the network, information goods, and the hierarchy, proprietary and material goods. I further see the need for the financial system to see ever further growth, and interest payments, which a largely information-based economy is unlikely to provide.
In summary ...
I don't want to title this section "conclusions" because, generally, I'm far from them. I do hope this proves useful (and not too personally embarrassing to me) for further discussion / exploration on where and how value is ascribed and attributed.
(Caveats: I am speaking for myself, not my employer. I am not an economist, but I have studied the subject.) BITCOIN CONSIDERED HARMFUL I suspect that if a sizable fraction of the population of a currency region comes to consider Bitcoin a better store of value than the currency region's fiat currency, then there will be negative outcomes. Since the number of Bitcoins are strictly bounded and gross world product is not, Bitcoin is an inherently deflationary currency. This is not true of fiat currencies: most central banks aim for low but positive levels of inflation to promote investment. Anyone who thinks that Bitcoins will probably continue to be used as a medium of exchange in the future should also believe that Bitcoin's value should at least increase with gross world product. By Gresham's law, such people will tend to hold onto Bitcoins rather than the local fiat currency. If the returns on Bitcoin investments exceed returns in the stock market or the returns on starting a new business, there will a large disincentive to start new businesses, investment in the future will sag, and recessions will be that much harder to exit. This should be true for gold as well. We are lucky in that gold is hard to use for a medium of exchange (there's not enough of it), which reduces its value as a store of value. I love the idea of a digital currency. I love the idea easy digital transactions. I love the idea of sidestepping credit cards and banks. I love the idea of making it harder for the financial sector to skim billions of dollars off the economy without taking any risk or doing any work[*]. But I don't want to take monetary policy out of the hands of central banks. I don't want to return to the gold standard. We can do better. [*] When banks do do work and make risky loans to businesses and individuals, then they deserve to make a profit from interest. But taking 2% of every credit card transaction or wire transfer doesn't add value to the economy — it is what an economist would call a rent.
Looking For Peer-Review On This Upcoming Bitcoin Course
Hi Guys, We are in the process of developing a comprehensive economics of bitcoin course for people to increase their understanding of bitcoin as a money system and also as a technology. I thought to post this here today because we are seeking feedback and peer review on this course as it is currently in pre-launch. More than anything, I would like to hear what interests you about the current course outline and what problems you are looking to solve/areas you are looking to learn about are. In order to serve a specific target market, we deliberately excluded anything which was focused deeply on the mining aspect of cryptocurrency and instead am focusing on what an investment manager, economics researcher, entrepreneur, writer in the bitcoin space would be interested in. Bitcoin mining and cryptocurrency development may come in the form of later courses, but for now we want to be very specific around the investment/technology potential of the bitcoin payment system. This will be a paid course. If you are interested in a free course, we already put together an Introduction to Bitcoin Course. If you are interested in learning more about this course and registering for it at a 50% discount, look here. Here is the course outline: Monetary Characteristics
Bitcoin Money Supply
21 Million Hard Cap
Money Stock Velocity
Bitcoin Is Backed By Time Itself
Characteristics of Sound Money
Bitcoin Violates Principle of Fungibility
Bitcoin vs. Gold
Trade In The Digital Economy
John Nash’s Ideal Money
Price Stabilization of Bitcoin
Antifragile Nature of Bitcoin
Gresham’s Law & Bitcoin
Block Space as a New Commodity
Bitcoin May Become A Global Reserve Instrument
Sidechains & the Lightning Network
Money Is Now An Image
Embedded Bitcoin Mining
Blockchain Technology as the Blueprint for an Internet of Things
Political Implications of Cryptocurrency
Historical References to Bitcoin
Source Code as Law
Evolution of the Corporation
Tax Avoidance Potential of Cryptocurrency
Denationalization of Money
Bitcoin Will End the Nation State
Incoming Surveillance of Bitcoin
Zero Marginal Cost Society
Open Bazaar: The Internet’s Decentralized Marketplace
What would you want to see in an Economics of Bitcoin Course? What kinds of products/courses would you be willing to pay for? Thanks for reading and keep up the good fight.
Bitcoin & Gresham's Law - the economic inevitability of Collapse Philipp Güring & Ian Grigg October-December 2011 Abstract. The Bitcoin economy exhibits remarkable and predictable stability on the supply side based on the power costs of mining. However, that stability is challenged if cost-curve assumption is not solely expressed by the fair cost of power. As there is at least one major ... Rather suddenly, the state issued fiat currency bolivar lost 99% of its purchasing power. Gresham's law holds that "bad money drives out good money," meaning that given a choice of currencies (broadly speaking, "money" that serves as a store of value and a means of exchange), people use depreciating "bad" to buy goods and services and hoard "good" money that is appreciating or holding its value. Gresham’s Law and Bitcoin Gresham’s law holds that “bad money drives out good money,” meaning that given a choice of currencies (broadly speaking, “money” that serves as a store of value and a means of exchange), people use depreciating “bad” money to buy goods and services and hoard “good” money that is appreciating or holding its value. 1: Discussions surrounding Bitcoin and Gresham’s law immediately devolve into a debate about historical formulation or wording of Gresham’s law. Gresham’s law includes the notion that one or several currencies must be accepted at a defined value under legal tender law. However, the wider economic phenomenon that “powers” Gresham’s law is a universal phenomenon that is independent ... Gresham’s law holds that “bad money drives out good money,” meaning that given a choice of currencies (broadly speaking, “money” that serves as a store of value and a means of exchange), people use depreciating “bad” to buy goods and services and hoard “good” money that is appreciating or holding its value. As this dynamic plays out, eventually there is little “good money ...
Gresham's Law VS Thiers' Law Simplified: Lessons Of History You Can't Afford To Ignore - Duration: 11:28. The Bitcoin Express 120 views. 11:28. What is Inflation? - Duration: 8:01. ... On July 2, 2018, Reason and The Soho Forum hosted a debate between Erik Voorhees, the CEO of ShapeShift, and Peter Schiff, CEO and chief global strategist of... State of Markets w/ Jon Najarian, Simon Dixon & More (Bitcoin, Stocks, Gold, Oil) 👉 Subscribe so you don't miss the next one: http://bit.ly/2QKVDdV SAVE THE DATE! Email: [email protected] This video is unavailable. Watch Queue Queue Trading Bitcoin - BTC Still Flat but Stocks Are On the Move! Understanding Bitcoin has been postponed till Oct 1-4 👉 Subscribe so you don't miss the next one...